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We’ve seen the market pullback over the last couple of days. It’s common for some to have this lingering feeling of anxiousness to let go or change their portfolio - as Mr. Jose Aranaz would put it “People behave differently when you have money on the line”. Have you done any reflection lately how the market movement has been affecting you?
It is during this time that having an investment strategy shines the most – whether it is by Fundamental Analysis or by Technical Analysis. The important thing is that you need to have an educated basis to guide you in achieving your investment goal.
But really, with the market in a steep decline the last several days, is this major cause for concern? For the day traders and short term investors, YES it is. We can only speculate if the SMA 2 will support the price or it will breakdown and test the SMA 3.
If we break this trading day into fractals, here is what it would look like. We have seen a fierce tug of war between buyers and sellers.
The sellers jumped in the opportunity at the first spike and it was all bear from there. Others call it a knee jerk reaction when a sliver of opportunity presents itself - in this case, an opportunity to sell. They panic sell to cut their loss or stop their bleed. I can only speculate how the market will behave tomorrow. Traders should be vigilant on their positions.
But how about the long term investors, should they be concerned? The answer to this is more complex. I wish to share with you two things and you decide what the answer will be for you.
DIVIDENDS AND PAPER LOSS
Remember that there several ways to earn from the stock market. You should also look into the dividends. That’s right. In a bearish sentiment, dividends are most commonly taken for granted. If you are long term holder, also take into account dividend declaration whether stock dividend or cash dividend. Accounting dividends can cancel or lessen your capital depreciation. Dividends are commonly available in blue-chip stocks.
Remember that a loss or a gain is only realized when you SELL your stocks. Otherwise, it’s just paper profit or paper loss. If you are a long term holder, bear in mind that a market cycle always includes recovery.
This is a 10 year weekly chart of the PSEi. The steep angle of the expansion of market on the latter part made the price far from the SMA 1. A correction, at this point, can be healthy. Not only that, it can be a buying opportunity. If you take a look at the stochastic, we are at the 80 level and we are sustaining that range. You can take a look at it as stocks being overbought, or as confirmation that the bullish trend is still strong. Even the MACD is in agreement. The bigger picture tells me that yes, the market is still in a bullish trend, and a correction maybe due. But in any case, if I am a long term investor, I could probably sleep tight for the next 2 years and let my investment do the work.
Happy investing everyone!
By: Ryan Ulysses Cruz
Director of Operations
Biz Whiz Business Training and Consultancy
*Biz Whiz regularly conducts free seminar on Stock Market Investing for Beginners. For more details. please visit the events page.
Red was color of last week. I've been watching S&P500 and Nikkei slide down due to market exhaustion. It wasn't a surprise that the local market emulated the activity. My portfolio slid down to - 3% in a week. Now, you would say, 3% is nothing. Yes it doesn't sound much if you are only investing cigarette money, as Jose Aranaz would call it, but imagine you have millions at stake. This would definitely change the picture. And if you study closely, 3% could've been your annual return in an SDA. I wish I have the latter but heck, I love watching the market rise and fall so the amount accounts to be miniscule.
Do I worry? Of course I do.. The market has been long due for a correction and I am just waiting for a catalyst to prime the adjustment. Last year, the Philippine market also had a dip in May. If you remain cognizant and vigilant, you would notice a recurring pattern during these months. I could not exactly pin point when but I think we are somewhere there now.. There has been a lot of profit taking in the last few days. The sellers are clearly winning. And I have to admit, I saw the signal but still remained affectionate on my holdings. Now I worry that I fell in love with my portfolio.
It got me thinking on my investment style. Why am I holding to sell when I saw a signal for a potential turn around? Some would say it is greed that holds grip. In some cases yes. But I think in my case, it is more than that. I keep clutching because I have developed a bond with them. Let's a look at one stock that I have - MEG
In March, the price - MACD line was diverging, the bullish momentum was diminishing. Same thing April with STS and price. I could've traded last March and April and played along the channel, made some extra, and forgot all about MEG. But I did not. Now it is testing the SMA 2 support with a potential to either bounce or break down. I still have it with me.
I had MEG for over 9 months now. I bought it with a target selling price of 3. Through this course, I have seen it grow, and it brought me delight to see it perform. It even broke my target. Watching the stock almost incessantly made me feel attached to it. It is more like parenting and seeing your child grow. That's the simplest analogy I can come up with. And when things like this happen - emotion creeps over logic, it is really a feat to let go.
Is it bad to fall in love with your stock? It would be oxymoronic if I say "if you think about it, yes". The governance of logic over emotion is always a grey area. But let me try attempting to be pragmatic over the situation. Forgive brute flinging to clear my judgment.
If you are a Fudamentalist, you take a look a the company financials, the management, and numbers to see if the business is sustainable and profitable. I am inserting a worksheet we did in Biz Whiz for MEG in our stock valuation workshop and MEG looked like this that time. Looked promising to me.
From a Technician point hower, you would care to take a look at the chart and the indicators like what I did earlier.
Or, you could marry both. Either way, investing decisions should be made based on analysis. Eureka! There you have it my friends. It is not so bad to fall in love for the right reasons afterall. The operative words here are "right reasons". Smart investors, like it or not, make informed calls that will always have a basis. When you fall in love with your stock, make it a point to fall in love with the right reason.
Ryan Ulysses Cruz
Director of Operations
Biz Whiz Business Training and Consultancy
* Biz Whiz conducts FREE Stock Market Investing seminars regularly. To find out more about the seminar, visit the events page.
Do you want to invest in the Philippine stock market? After attending our FREE Stock Market Investing for Beginners (Module 1) seminar , a lot of our participants said yes. They wanted to open an account right away, but they were not sure how to pick the right broker. I gave them 5 questions they should ask first before choosing their stockbroker. Five questions after the jump!
5 questions you should ask before choosing your stockbroker
1. Do they have a minimum deposit, and can you trade beyond the deposit you have with them?
Some brokers require you to deposit money with them before you open an account. The amount can be anywhere from P 5,000 to P 50,000 to even P 1,000,000. Unlike banks, this deposit does not earn interest and there is no maintaining balance. This is simply your "wallet" or credit with your broker. If you ask your broker to buy stocks for you, they will get from your deposit. If you no longer have free cash in your account, you usually either have to sell existing stocks and turn them into cash or deposit more money into your account before you can buy new stocks. This is especially true for most, if not all, online brokers.
However, there are some brokers that will allow you to buy stocks beyond the free cash that you have with them, especially if you already have a good track record with your broker. They will just ask you to pay T + 3 (or within three trading days after your transaction). Personally, I would prefer to have one account with a broker that allows me to buy stocks beyond my deposit. This gives me the flexibility to just add more funds as needed, rather than parking my money with my broker whether or not I intend to invest it.
2. How much commission do they charge?There are three types of brokers: full service, discount, and online.
Full service brokers usually charge the highest in commission, usually from 1 to 1.5%. In exchange, they should provide value-added service to their clients. Most full service brokers have messengers that are willing to pick-up and deliver checks to your residence or office for your convenience. They should also have a research department, and should be able to provide you advice on which stocks to buy and at what price. If your investments are small, you should be proactive in asking your broker for research and advice. If your investments are big, chances are the broker will have the initiative to call you. It is also likely that if your investments are in the millions and you trade frequently, you can request your broker to lower their commission rate.
Discount brokers charge low commissions, but are usually just order takers. They will buy or sell stocks for you but will not give you advice. I spoke with a lady yesterday who was complaining that her broker does not give her advice, so she ended up buying Cebu Pacific at initial public offering (IPO) price and losing a lot of money. I asked how much she was paying her broker, and she said .005%. I was surprised with the low commission rate. Chances are she has a discount broker. I would not recommend discount brokers for beginners.
Lastly, you have online brokers. They charge low commissions, usually at 0.25% of your transaction cost. Most of them do have research, but they are all uploaded online--it is up to you to read and interpret them. It is also up to you to input and execute your orders--so computer literacy is a requirement. One advantage with online brokers, however, is the wealth of free information most of them provide. Most of them have built-in charting software, for those who know how to use technical analysis (enroll in our technical analysis seminar if you don't know how). Some also provide historical information that is useful to those who know how to do stock valuation (clickhere to inquire about our stock valuation workshop). Some online brokers now also have apps for your ipad, iphone and android devices so you can check your portfolio on the road and trade on the go.
Personally, I have one full-service broker for my long term investments and one online broker for the stocks that I want to trade short to medium term.
3. Do they have a research department, and do they give advise on which stocks to buy ore sell?
Most online brokers have stock recommendations based on fundamental and/or technical analysis. It is also really easy to use because it is usually in table format, with advice on whether to BUY, HOLD, or SELL.
For full-service brokers, some even have model portfolios which they recommend to their clients (i.e. which stocks to hold and at what percentage, whether or not it is good for short term or long term investments, etc.) I have heard of some full-service brokers who go as far as assigning their staff to mining sites if they are monitoring mining stocks, for example.
As a caveat, not all research and advice are created equal. If you have friends who are existing clients of said broker, please inquire with them whether or not they have actually made money from their broker's recommendations. If they lose money more often than not, then it might be a good idea to scout for other brokers.
4. What are their payment methods?
This is an important question if you are a busy person, if you are based outside Manila, or if you are an OFW. How easy is it to deposit money into your account, and to withdraw from it?
Ideally, your broker should have several bank accounts which you can deposit to. It would be best if you can transfer money to them using your bank's online portal.
It is also important to know how easy it is to withdraw money from your account. Some online brokers require you to fill up a form online and send a scanned copy to them before you can withdraw money from your account. Others have cut-off times, after which your withdrawal will be scheduled for the next day. Others make it very easy for you to withdraw money from your account, simply ask them to deposit it for you.
5. How is their customer service like?
If they are snubbing you while you have yet to open an account, chances are they will also treat you poorly once you are already their client. As a beginner, you would want to open an account with a broker that answers all of your questions promptly and patiently. You would also want a broker that make you feel like your business is valued--no matter how small or large your investment is.
Open your account today.
So what are you waiting for? Open an account with a stockbroker today. To get our assistance in choosing the right stockbroker for you, call us at 975 9559. Don't worry, as Biz Whiz provides that service for free.
Want to learn more?
Still not confident about opening an account? Learn more about stock market investing first. Visithttp:///www.bizwhiz.com.ph for our upcoming schedules and course outlines, or click here to inquire.
For those of you who already have brokers, please share on the comments section your review of your brokers. How is their research and how good or bad are their recommendations? Are you happy with their customer service so far? How easy is it to deposit / withdraw money from your account? I would personally be happy to hear from you. I will post my review of my own brokers in a future entry. :)
Until then, happy investing everyone!
Estelle Ople Osorio
Biz Whiz Business Training and Consultancy
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